Bad News For GOP Candidates: Voters Anxious On Major Issues

Copyright 2000-2007 Investor's Business Daily, Inc.

INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY

Posted 12/17/2007

The public is in a sour, anxious mood. That's likely to boost Democrats and undercut Republicans in 2008, pollsters say.

Concerns about the economy, health care and Iraq top almost all surveys, which also say the general public is favoring the Democrats on those issues.

At the same time, interest in issues that have helped Republicans in the past such as terrorism, crime and gay marriage is receding.

The bottom line: While the election remains months away and will be greatly affected by the eventual presidential nominees, polls show that it's the Democrats' race to lose at this point.

Independents Favor Dems

Karlyn Bowman, resident scholar for polling at the American Enterprise Institute, says the shift is clearest in polls that track which party voters identify with. The numbers were at parity in 2004 (45%-45%), according to Gallup. Today the Democrats have a 52%-36% lead.

"It's because more independents have moved in the Democrats' direction," Bowman said. "Starting in the 1950s through the 1990s, they were a very reliably Republican group. That's clearly changed."

The shift is based on a sense of economic gloom associated with the Bush administration and the former GOP congressional majority.

A December Gallup poll found that 71% thought the economy was getting worse. That's up from 53% in January.

The Pew Research Center's Oct. 31 study of voter concerns found that 79% cited the economy as a major issue, with health care and Iraq tied for second at 76%.

The study found that concern over jobs actually had fallen since 2004, from 76% to 71%. But concern over energy prices soared from 54% to 65% over the same period.

"It's clearly high fuel and gas prices that are driving concern over the economy," Bowman said.

The high fuel prices cause people to think inflation is on the rise, regardless of other indicators. Those fears are "an incredibly powerful political indicator," she added.

Carroll Doherty, associate director of research for Pew, says that while energy is a major part of the problem, economic anxiety is very "broad based."

"There's the mortgage foreclosure crisis, the energy prices, continuing job concerns despite declines in the (poll) numbers on that issue, and just fears of a general economic slowdown," Doherty said.

The economy has even managed to supplant Iraq as the top issue, Doherty says. Pew also found that terrorism was rated as a top issue by 69%, down from 77% in 2004.

Concerns over social issues like abortion, stem cell policy and gay marriage were near the bottom of the list.

While 47% rated abortion as a top issue in 2004, only 39% do now. Stem cell research fell from 43% in 2004 to 35% today. Gay marriage declined from the top issue at 32% to only 22%.

Those drops don't always mean opinions have changed. Rather, it means voters just aren't thinking of them at the moment.

"There hasn't been much of a shift in attitudes on gay marriage," Doherty said. "It's just that it's out of the headlines."

A December Gallup poll, which required voters to rank issues in order of importance, found that Iraq (37%), the economy (17%) and health care (15%) were the top issues overall. Those answers differed greatly when broken down to Republican, Democrat and Independent voters.

Republican concerns don't move others nearly as strongly. That portends trouble for the eventual GOP nominee.

For Republicans, Iraq was the top concern (29%), with immigration and terrorism tied for second (17% each). The economy was fourth (13%). Other polls put terrorism even higher as a GOP issue.

For Democrats, Iraq was the top issue (46%), followed by health care (22%). The economy was third (15%). No other issue was close to double digits.

Independents tilted toward the Democrats. They rated Iraq and the economy as their top issues, just not as strongly as the Democrats (34% and 19%, respectively).

Health care was third (14%), with immigration right behind that (10%), the latter putting them closer to the GOP.

But independents lean toward the Democrats' solutions. A December CBS/New York Times poll found that independents favored Democrats over Republicans on Iraq (38%-26%) and on the economy (38%-29%).

'Battle Of Ideas'

One caveat that many experts pointed out in discussing the polls was that the election will be dominated by the presidential race and who the candidates are. That could quickly change the issue landscape.

"In the general election I think the economy, health care, taxes and immigration could all be issues framed differently from what we have seen before," said Michael Barone, co-author of "The Almanac of American Politics." "I think potentially there could be an important battle of ideas over new terrain."